This Week in Auto Racing October 26 - October 28

Autoracing Betting Lines

10/23/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Gordon and his Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jimmie Johnson continue their two-man battle for the Nextel Cup title at the Atlanta Motor Speedway. But don't forget the Craftsman Truck Series championship where Mike Skinner and Ron Hornaday Jr. have been throwing haymakers at each other since the first race in Daytona.

NASCAR

Nextel Cup

Pep Boys Auto 500 - Atlanta Motor Speedway - Hampton, GA

There are just four races left in the 2007 Chase for the Nextel Cup and barring a complete collapse it appears to be an intra-team battle between four-time Nextel Cup champion Jeff Gordon and defending series champion Jimmie Johnson.

In the six "Chase" events to date, Gordon has won twice (Talladega, Lowe's) and collected five top-fives. His worst finish in the "Chase" was a still respectable 11th place at Dover.

Johnson, 53 points behind his Hendrick Motorsports teammate, is coming off a win last week at Martinsville. It was his third consecutive win at the half- mile short track that used to be Gordon's bailiwick. Johnson has three top- fives in the "Chase," but two 14th-place finishes, at Dover and Lowe's, have left him with a sizeable deficit to overcome.

On the other hand, Johnson was the winner at AMS in March where he led 135 of 325 laps en route to a 1.311-second victory.

In that race, Stewart built a 1.314-second margin with 25 laps remaining. Johnson's pit crew was telling him to conserve fuel, but he also needed to catch Stewart. Johnson caught a huge break when a sixth caution flag, for debris, came out with 16 laps to go.

The leaders came in for fresh rubber and a splash of fuel to guarantee they could reach the finish. Stewart won the race off pit road with Kenseth, Johnson and Montoya just behind. The No.20 Chevy got a great jump and left a lapped car between himself and second place. But Johnson got around both Kenseth and the lapped car and still had eight laps to run down the leader.

Johnson was driving at the bottom of the track and closing on Stewart. Six laps to go and he was just two lengths back. They were side-by-side with five to go, but Stewart fought him off. Johnson tried it again on lap 323 and squeezed Stewart into the wall, slightly. Stewart regained control, but he lost all his momentum.

Johnson took off and Stewart, now with a damaged right-side fender, had to settle for second spot. He had nothing for Johnson. The 2006 Nextel Cup champion took the checkered flag without challenge.

Since March 2004, Johnson has two wins and five top-5s in seven starts at AMS while Gordon has just two top-5s and one DNF.

The only wild card that could possibly ruin the Hendrick Motorsports party is if Clint Bowyer and his No.07 Richard Childress Racing come up with a "miracle."

Following a ninth-place finish at Martinsville, his best ever on the flat half mile track, he sits 115 points behind Gordon. But the Emporia, KS native doesn't quite seem ready to challenge the to Hendrick Motorsports cars.

"We were just hoping that we could be within a hundred points of (Gordon and Johnson) coming out of Charlotte and here, because we know they 'own' these two places," said Gil Martin, Bowyer's crew chief after Martinsville.

"I'm really enjoying our situation where we're at - it's fun," said Bowyer. "I'm really proud of the way we've been able to step up our program. It's neat to see how far we've come in just a few races."

The difference between winning a championship and merely competing for one is that you would never hear Gordon or Johnson being satisfied to be "staying close" to the leaders. They both "need" to win too badly to be satisfied to just being close.

That's why this year's champion will be either Gordon or Johnson.

Busch

Sam's Town 250 - Memphis Motorsports Park - Millington, TN

Carl Edwards had to put the champagne on ice last week when an incident on lap 133 collected Edwards and three others. It was the first time in Edwards' Busch Series career that he had back-to-back DNFs (did not finish).

Not to fear however, Edwards still holds a commanding 638-point lead over second-place David Reutimann and 753 points over Kevin Harvick, the third- place driver and defending series champion.

Edwards can clinch the crown by leaving Memphis with a lead of 585 points or more over the second-place driver in the point standings.

The season's second half hasn't been kind to Edwards. In the first 15 races of the year, he posted four wins, 11 top-fives and 13 top-10s. However, in the 16 races since, he has failed to earn even one win and finished 20th or worse eight times. In fact, he has failed to finish on the lead lap in six of the last eight races.

Last year's race was won by Harvick, with Clint Bowyer and Edwards just behind.

On the final restart, Edwards, in the lead, seemed to spin his tires slightly and Harvick ducked to the bottom of the track. He gave Edwards a nudge up the track and both he and Bowyer slipped by. Harvick held off his teammate for another win en route to a record setting championship.

"I just didn't get a good restart," said Edwards.

"Both of us were sideways, loose, our tires wore out on the last laps," said Harvick. "What more can you ask for, to come down to the last couple of laps."

This year's race may come down to the last lap, however, the championship should be wrapped up this weekend.

Craftsman

Easycare Vehicle Service Contracts 200 - Atlanta Motor Speedway - Hampton, GA

Like it's "big brother" the Nextel Cup Series, the Craftsman Truck Series appears to be a two-man race.

With four races left in the season, Mike Skinner and Ron Hornaday Jr. are locked in a titanic struggle of former champions. Skinner, the 1995 champion, had been the series leader for most of the season. After winning three of four races to start the season, the Bill Davis Racing Toyota driver has led the series for 16 of 21 weeks.

But Hornaday Jr. (1996 and 1998 Craftsman Series champion) has also had a great season and last month caught Skinner. After finishing second at the Dodge Dealers Ram Tough 200 at the Gateway International Raceway, the Kevin Harvick Inc. Chevrolet driver grabbed the lead from Skinner and has held it for three of the last five events. But despite finishing a solid third last Saturday, Hornaday Jr. lost the championship lead as Skinner won for the fifth time this year and the 24th time in his truck career.

Skinner will bring an 11-point lead to the Atlanta Motor Speedway for this Saturday's Easycare Vehicle Service Contracts 200. Neither driver was particularly good in last year's race - Skinner finished eighth and Hornaday Jr. 13th. But in the March race, Skinner was a relatively easy winner while Hornaday Jr. again finished outside the top-10.

Skinner started on the pole and led the first 17 laps before yielding to Todd Bodine, who would finish second to Skinner. The race would come down to an 16- lap shootout between Skinner, Bodine, Clint Bowyer and Rick Crawford.

Bowyer got the jump on the restart, but Skinner and Bodine caught him within a lap. Bodine was looking high and low to find a spot around Skinner, but couldn't find one. A record ninth caution flag (Allmendinger) set up a very short finishing run.

Bowyer didn't get as good a restart this time and Skinner nudged him pulling his Toyota around the outside for the lead. Bowyer fell all the way to seventh and with two laps remaining it was Skinner and Bodine. Skinner's lead was eight lengths as they saw the white flag signifying one lap to go and he made no mistakes en route to the victory.

Expect another battle between Skinner and Hornaday Jr. on Saturday.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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