War Pass sends clear message with opening start

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/25/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If there was any doubt about last year's champion two-year-old colt War Pass, those doubts were extinguished on Sunday. The Eclipse Award winner made his first start of the year in a $60,000 allowance race at Gulfstream Park.

Under the experienced handling of jockey Cornelio Velasquez the three-year-old showed himself to be ready for a campaign leading to the Kentucky Derby. He easily disposed of four rivals in the one-mile race.

"He's a very happy horse," said Velasquez. "He's the best horse in the country right now. He's better than last year, he galloped out really strong. He wanted to win today."

War Pass posted a 7 1/2 length win while covering the mile in 1:36.38. Velasquez never had to do much more than stay in the saddle as the colt began to answer questions about his stamina.

"You still have anxiety no matter how you look at it," noted trainer Nick Zito. "When horses haven't run for a long time, there are injuries every day, so I know how grateful I am. He's unbelievable. That's what we wanted for him."

Owned by Robert LaPenta, War Pass is expected to make his next start on Saturday, March 15 in the 1 1/16 mile Tampa Bay Derby. Street Sense captured last year's Tampa Bay Derby leading to his Kentucky Derby victory.

"Three weeks from now it will be a little tougher," Zito continued. "I was happy for the fans. I'm a fan myself. I'm grateful to Gulfstream Park for putting the race on. He broke like a rocket. It would have been nice if he had sat back, but as long as he keeps winning, I'm happy. He's a special horse, he really is."

War Pass is undefeated in five career starts with better than $1.4 million in earnings. Last year he won the Champagne Stakes before taking the Breeders' Cup Juvenile by nearly five lengths.

If things continue to go well for War Pass, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on Saturday, April 5 would be his final race before the Run for the Roses.

LaPenta and Zito also won Sunday's $350,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park with Cool Coal Man. The colt made a three wide move from fourth place on the final turn to win the 1 1/8 mile event.

Zito is still mapping out Cool Coal Man's schedule, but the Florida Derby on Saturday, March 29 is a possibility.

"I can't say where or what race he'll will run in," Zito noted, "possibly the Florida Derby. He's not a big horse. He'd need to have a good 30 days from now. We'll see."

Cool Coal Man is a winner of four of seven starts for more than $300,000. He turned the tables on Anak Nakal, another Zito trained thoroughbred. Anak Nakal, eighth on Sunday, won last year's Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes when Cool Coal Man finished seventh.

It must be noted that the final time for the Fountain of Youth was revised to 1:49.53 from 1:51.86.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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